Silver (XAG/USD) fell to about $70.60 in early European trade on Thursday, with the near-term outlook turning bearish. The move followed comments from US President Donald Trump about the Iran conflict.
In a televised speech, Trump said his core “objectives are nearing completion” in Iran. He also said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” for the next two to three weeks.
Market Reaction And Rates
The news pushed crude oil prices higher and lowered expectations of interest rate cuts. Silver can benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, but it pays no interest, which can reduce demand when rates stay high.
On the daily chart, price dropped below the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $73.80. The RSI is 40.97, below the 50 level, after falling from the mid-80s area.
Resistance is at $73.80, with the Bollinger middle band near $76.25; a move above this zone could reopen $80.00. Support sits near $68.00, then $65.00, and below that the lower Bollinger Band is around $63.20.
Looking back at the analysis from 2025, we saw silver prices fall sharply to the low $70s due to geopolitical anxieties and a firm outlook on interest rates. Now, with the price hovering around $75.00, the situation has become more complex as immediate geopolitical tensions have eased but macroeconomic uncertainty remains. This creates a different landscape for us to navigate in the weeks ahead.
The Federal Reserve has held rates steady so far in 2026, but the latest March Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in slightly hot at 3.1%. This sticky inflation data makes the Fed’s next move uncertain, creating a ceiling for non-yielding assets like silver ahead of the next FOMC meeting in early May. We see this reflected in the futures market, where bets on a summer rate cut have been slightly reduced.
Industrial Demand And Trading Setup
On the other hand, strong underlying support exists from industrial demand, especially from the green energy sector. We know from the Silver Institute’s 2025 data that solar panel fabrication alone consumed over 160 million ounces, a trend that has continued into 2026. This consistent industrial buying provides a floor under the market that was less of a factor during the politically-driven volatility of last year.
This creates a classic setup for range-bound volatility trading in the coming weeks. We should consider selling out-of-the-money puts near the strong support level around $68.00, which held during the 2025 decline, while simultaneously selling calls against resistance near $78.00. This strategy allows us to collect premium while the market decides its next major direction.
We recall the sharp price decline in 2025, which underscores the need for defined-risk positions as we approach the next Fed decision. Buying straddles or strangles could be an effective way to position for a significant price move, regardless of direction, should the Fed signal a clear hawkish or dovish shift. This protects us from an unexpected breakout while capitalizing on the rising implied volatility we expect around the event.
