Silver fell on Thursday, with XAG/USD trading near $72.82, down almost 3.0% on the day. It briefly slipped below $70 during the European session amid pressure linked to the US–Israel war with Iran.
A firmer US Dollar and higher Oil prices added to inflation concerns and supported expectations of tighter monetary policy, especially from the Federal Reserve. Higher-for-longer rate expectations weighed on the non-yielding metal, even as demand for safer assets remained present.
Technically, price action stayed capped near the 100-day Simple Moving Average at about $75.63, while remaining above the 200-day SMA at $59.06. The RSI was 43.64, below 50, and the MACD (12, 26, 9) sat above its signal line but below zero.
Resistance levels were marked at $75.60, then the 50-day SMA near $82.90, and the February swing high around $96.62. Support was seen in the $70–$68 area, then the March low near $61.01, close to the 200-day SMA.
Silver prices are shaped by geopolitical risk, interest rates, the US Dollar, investment demand, mining supply and recycling. Industrial use and moves in Gold, including the Gold/Silver ratio, can also affect pricing.
Given the current headwinds, we see continued short-term pressure on silver. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept the U.S. Dollar Index firm, recently hovering around the 106 mark, which makes dollar-priced silver more expensive for foreign buyers. This, combined with sticky inflation data from March 2026, reinforces our view that the Federal Reserve will delay any potential interest rate cuts.
For derivative traders, this suggests a bearish stance in the immediate term, with the $75.60 level acting as a formidable ceiling. We have seen repeated failures to break above this 100-day moving average, making it a key area to trade against. Selling futures or buying put options with an expiration in the next few weeks could be a strategy to capitalize on this weakness.
Immediate support is in the $68-$70 zone, and a decisive break below this could open the door for a slide towards the 200-day moving average near $60. Looking back at 2025, we saw similar pullbacks find strong buyers at these lower levels, so this would be a critical test of the larger uptrend. Traders should watch for signs of stabilization in that area for a potential reversal.
However, we must also consider the strong fundamental picture for silver’s industrial use. Demand from the solar and electronics sectors continued to set records through 2025, and this underlying consumption provides a long-term floor for prices. This suggests that while short-term trades may be bearish, deeper dips could present compelling long-term buying opportunities.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which spent much of 2025 above 85, also remains historically high, suggesting silver is undervalued relative to gold. This may attract long-term investors if prices fall toward the March 2026 lows. Therefore, traders might consider a strategy of short-term bearish positions while simultaneously planning to build long-term call option positions on any significant price drops toward the low $60s.
