United States CFTC oil non-commercial net positions fell from 233.6K to 213.5K.
The drop was 20.1K from the previous level.
Speculative Positioning Shifts
We’re seeing large speculators pull back, as net long positions in oil have dropped by over 20,000 contracts. This is a significant shift in sentiment, suggesting that conviction in the recent price rally is starting to fade. Traders who were betting on higher prices are now reducing their exposure.
This caution likely stems from fresh economic data that points to slowing demand. For instance, the latest U.S. manufacturing PMI released on April 1st, 2026, dipped to 49.8, signaling a contraction that caught many by surprise. At the same time, this week’s EIA report showed an unexpected crude oil inventory build of 2.1 million barrels, countering forecasts of a draw.
This setup is reminiscent of what we observed in the third quarter of 2025. Back then, a similar drop in non-commercial net positions preceded a swift price correction in WTI from the high $80s to the low $70s. The current environment, with WTI hovering around $92, feels similarly vulnerable to a pullback.
Given this bearish sentiment from managed money, we should consider strategies that benefit from a price drop or sideways movement.
Options Positioning Ideas
Buying put options with strikes around the $88 level could offer a cost-effective way to position for a potential decline. Alternatively, selling call credit spreads above the recent high of $95 would allow us to collect premium while betting that resistance will hold in the coming weeks.
