US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Good Friday that the US could “easily” reopen the Strait of Hormuz, “take the oil”, and “make a fortune”. He added that it would be a “gusher” for the world.
The US Dollar traded marginally higher on the day, supported by an upbeat March Nonfarm Payrolls report. Trading conditions were thinner due to the Easter holidays, keeping moves within familiar levels.
Strait Of Hormuz Risk
This statement about the Strait of Hormuz injects a huge amount of geopolitical risk into a market thinned by holidays. We know that in 2025, about 21 million barrels of oil—roughly 20% of the world’s daily supply—passed through this chokepoint. Traders should immediately look to buy short-dated call options on crude oil, anticipating a price spike from fears of a supply disruption.
We have seen this play out before and should not underestimate the potential for a violent price move. Following the attacks on Saudi oil facilities back in 2019, Brent crude futures jumped nearly 20% in a single trading session. A similar panic today could easily see oil prices surge past the $100 per barrel mark, a level we haven’t seen since late 2025.
Beyond oil, we must anticipate a sharp rise in overall market volatility. With the VIX index trading near a relatively calm level of 14 for most of last month, this rhetoric alone could send it soaring back above 20. Buying VIX call options for the coming weeks is a direct way to trade the rising uncertainty.
This kind of instability is a direct threat to the equity markets, as a sustained oil shock acts like a tax on consumers and businesses. We should be considering protective put options on broad market indices like the SPY or specific sectors like transportation ETFs. Airlines, which were just recovering from the high fuel costs seen in 2025, are particularly vulnerable here.
Dollar Reaction Scenarios
The dollar is in a complex position, even with the positive jobs report showing a gain of 295,000 roles in March. Initially, the dollar may strengthen as global capital seeks safety in US assets amid the turmoil. However, a prolonged energy crisis that harms the US economy could quickly reverse that trend.
