EUR/USD traded in a narrow 1.1530 to 1.1550 range, consolidating near 1.1540 after rebounding from 1.1510. Trading was lighter due to Good Friday market closures, and the pair was set for a 0.3% weekly rise.
Markets were focused on the US Nonfarm Payrolls release due later on Friday. Expectations were for 60K jobs added in March after a 92K fall in February, with the unemployment rate seen steady at 4.4%.
Near Term Technical Picture
Near-term price action was described as neutral with mild downward pressure after a rejection at a prior support trendline. MACD moved below its signal line, while RSI held near 50.
Support levels were noted at 1.1510, then 1.1443 and 1.1422. Resistance was cited at 1.1563, then around 1.1620 to 1.1640 and near 1.1645.
Employment data can affect currencies through growth and spending, while very tight labour markets can feed inflation. Central banks monitor employment and wage growth when setting policy, with mandates including the Fed’s dual goal of maximum employment and stable prices, and the ECB’s focus on inflation.
As of today, April 3rd, 2026, the situation for the Euro has shifted significantly from the cautious consolidation we saw last year. Looking back to this time in 2025, we were anticipating a meager US jobs report of only 60,000, creating uncertainty. Today, the focus remains on the divergence between the US and European economies, which has become much clearer.
Current Macro And Trading Implications
The most recent US Nonfarm Payrolls data showed a blowout number, adding 303,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8%. This robust labor market data gives the Federal Reserve very little reason to consider cutting interest rates anytime soon. This fundamental strength continues to support the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is facing a different picture as recent inflation figures for the Eurozone cooled to 2.4%. With its primary mandate being price stability, a softening inflation report gives the ECB a green light to consider cutting interest rates ahead of the Fed. This policy divergence places clear downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Given this backdrop, derivative traders should consider positioning for further Euro weakness against the Dollar in the coming weeks. Buying put options on EUR/USD with strike prices below last year’s support level of 1.1510 could be a viable strategy. This allows traders to profit from a potential slide towards the 1.1440 area while limiting their maximum risk to the premium paid.
We must also be mindful of market volatility, which can be influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions. Increased volatility makes buying options more expensive, so traders might consider using bear put spreads to lower the initial cost. This involves buying a higher-strike put and selling a lower-strike put simultaneously to define a potential profit range and reduce the net premium.
