Rio Tinto (RIO) is a global mining and metals company producing iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium. The focus here is a rising support trendline that has been in place since mid-2024 and has created higher lows for nearly a year.
The price has pulled back to this trendline and held on three occasions: in the fall, in early 2026, and again this week. After the latest touch, the share price has started to recover towards $94.45.
Rising Support Trendline Overview
A key resistance level sits at $98.06. The price previously reached $98.06 and then fell from that level back down to the rising support.
The current move has the price working back towards $98.06. A confirmed daily close above $98.06 would indicate a break above resistance.
If the price instead has a confirmed daily close below the rising support trendline, attention shifts to the $84 to $85 area. The trendline has now been tested three times, increasing focus on whether it continues to hold.
Fundamental Backdrop And Options Setup
Rio Tinto is currently bouncing off a significant rising trendline that has been in place since the middle of 2024. The stock just touched this support and has recovered toward $94.45 as of April 3, 2026. This consistent pattern of making higher lows shows that buyers are stepping in on any weakness.
This technical strength is happening as iron ore prices have begun to recover, climbing back above $115 per tonne in late March. Adding to this, China’s latest manufacturing PMI reading came in at 50.5, signaling a slight expansion in industrial activity. This fundamental backdrop supports the idea of increasing demand for RIO’s core products.
For derivative traders, this creates a clear bullish setup to watch in the coming weeks. The primary target is the overhead resistance at $98.06. Buying call options, perhaps with May or June 2026 expirations, could be a capital-efficient way to play for a test of that critical level.
We are already seeing signs of this positioning in the options market, with a notable pickup in call volume for strikes above $100. Looking back, we saw a similar technical pattern in 2023 that preceded a sharp rally when underlying commodity prices improved. A confirmed daily close above the $98.06 resistance could be the trigger for such a move this time around.
However, the risk is a failure at resistance and a break of the long-term trendline. Since this support has now been tested three times, another failure could be significant. A confirmed daily close below that rising support would invalidate the bullish view and make buying put options attractive, targeting a move down to the $84 to $85 zone.
