Emini S&P June futures moved above resistance at 6,595/6,605 and stopped shorts above 6,620. The break above 6,620 set a buy signal towards 6,635/6,655, before prices fell from 6,653 to 6,610 and 6,585, reaching 6,522.
Minor support is listed at 6,510/6,500, with a break below 6,490 risking 6,450/40 and possibly 6,425/6,420. Minor resistance is at 6,590/6,600, with stronger resistance at 6,635/6,655.
Nasdaq Futures Levels And Signals
Emini Nasdaq June futures rose through 24,050/24,150, then reversed from the 24,330/350 area and dropped to 23,753. Support is noted at 23,650/23,600, with a break below 23,550 risking 23,400/350 and 23,250/200.
Resistance is listed at 23,310/350, while a break above 23,450 is a buy signal targeting 24,700/24,800. Shorts are given stops above 24,950, with shorts at 24,500/400 for profit taking.
Emini Dow Jones June futures rose from 45,300/45,100 and through 46,350/46,500, targeting 47,200/47,300, and reached 47,090. Prices then fell towards 46,450/300, with long stops below 46,100, and downside targets of 45,900 and 45,800/45,750.
Jason Sen started on the LIFFE options floor in 1987, aged 19, and moved to screen-based day trading in 2001.
The market showed significant weakness overnight, with S&P 500 futures collapsing from the 6,655 resistance area. This rejection at a key technical level suggests that sellers are taking control after the recent run-up. We should view this as a clear warning sign that the upward momentum is fading.
Key Risks Into The Holiday Weekend
Geopolitical tensions are a primary driver for this caution, especially with the long holiday weekend approaching. The risk of an escalation involving Iran means traders are unwilling to hold long positions, a sentiment reflected in the CBOE VIX index, which has climbed to over 15. We’ve also seen Brent crude oil prices push back above $91 a barrel, signaling that the market is pricing in a higher risk premium.
Low trading volumes are expected tomorrow and Monday due to holidays, which can lead to exaggerated price swings. Most participants will likely flatten their books to avoid exposure to unpredictable weekend headlines. This lack of liquidity means any significant news could cause a sharp gap in prices when markets reopen next week.
On top of this, we have the critical US Non-Farm Payrolls report due out tomorrow morning. After February’s core inflation data remained stubbornly above the Fed’s target, a strong jobs number could push back expectations for any interest rate cuts this year. This makes the report a major potential catalyst for another move lower.
We should recall the market behavior in late 2025, when a combination of sticky inflation and geopolitical flare-ups led to a swift 6% correction in the Nasdaq. The current setup feels similar, suggesting that complacency is dangerous at these levels. The break below key support could accelerate selling, just as it did last autumn.
Given this backdrop, we should consider buying put options on the SPY or QQQ to protect portfolios against a slide towards lower support levels, such as 6,450 on the S&P futures. Selling call spreads with a strike above the strong resistance at 6,655 could also be an effective strategy to capitalize on this fading rally. A break below 23,550 on Nasdaq futures would confirm the bearish momentum and open the door for a deeper correction.
