Canada’s exports rose to $66.31B in February, up from $62.48B in the previous period.
This marks an increase of $3.83B compared with the prior figure.
This strong export number for February points directly to a strengthening Canadian dollar in the near term. The surge to $66.31 billion suggests robust global demand for Canadian goods, increasing the inflow of foreign currency. We should therefore consider strategies that benefit from a rising loonie against the U.S. dollar.
We could look at buying call options on the Canadian dollar or selling USD/CAD futures to capitalize on this momentum. This view is reinforced by recent U.S. jobs data, which came in stronger than expected last week, signaling that Canada’s largest trading partner has a healthy appetite for imports. Historically, a strong U.S. economy has directly translated to a stronger CAD, a pattern we saw repeatedly in the post-2022 recovery.
The Bank of Canada, which is set to meet next week, will find it much harder to maintain a dovish stance given this data. We saw how quickly the Bank was forced to change its tone in late 2025 when inflation briefly ticked up, so we should anticipate hawkish language. This makes derivatives betting against an imminent rate cut, such as selling CORRA futures, an increasingly sensible position.
The latest inflation reading of 2.8% for February already limits the Bank’s ability to consider easing policy. That figure, combined with this new export strength, suggests the economy is running hotter than previously thought. This situation mirrors the early-2024 period where strong data consistently pushed back rate cut expectations.
Much of this export value is tied to the recent strength in commodity prices, with Western Canadian Select crude oil holding steady above $82 a barrel. This provides a fundamental backbone to the currency’s strength, unlike the more speculative rallies we observed last year. Bullish positions on energy and materials stocks, through options on relevant TSX-listed ETFs, should also perform well.
