EUR/USD trades slightly higher near 1.1515 in early Asian trading on Monday, after edging lower towards 1.1500. Demand for the US Dollar is supported by stronger US jobs data and rising uncertainty in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump indicated a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, alongside renewed threats to bomb power plants and other infrastructure if Tehran does not lift its blockade. Iran said it would respond to attacks on its infrastructure by targeting similar infrastructure owned by, or linked to, the US.
Middle East Tensions Drive Safe Haven Demand
Tehran stated the strait will remain blocked until Iran receives payment for war damages. These developments have increased demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven.
US non-farm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March 2026, following a 133,000 fall that was revised from -92,000, and compared with a forecast of a 60,000 increase. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February.
A firm European Central Bank stance on inflation may limit the euro’s downside. The ECB has said policy will stay restrictive until inflation returns sustainably to its 2% target.
The current market presents a clear conflict between a strengthening US Dollar and a resolute European Central Bank. The robust US jobs report and escalating tensions in the Middle East are fueling a flight to safety, directly benefiting the dollar. This puts immediate downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, testing the critical 1.1500 support level.
Volatility Outlook And Trade Positioning
Given the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, we expect currency volatility to increase significantly in the coming weeks. We saw similar spikes back in early 2022 when geopolitical events caused the VIX, a key volatility gauge, to jump over 45% in a single week. Therefore, traders should consider buying options, such as straddles or strangles, to profit from a large price move in either direction, irrespective of which catalyst ultimately dominates.
The surprise strength in the US labor market, with 178,000 jobs added against an expectation of 60,000, will likely force a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve’s policy path. We saw a similar dynamic in late 2023, when unexpectedly strong jobs data caused markets to significantly delay their timeline for expected rate cuts. Consequently, positioning for further dollar strength through strategies like buying EUR/USD puts seems logical.
However, the European Central Bank’s hawkish commitment to fighting inflation provides a strong counterbalance that could prevent a freefall in the Euro. Eurozone core inflation has remained stubbornly above 3% for much of the last year, giving the ECB little room to soften its stance. This suggests a floor may form for the pair, making the sale of out-of-the-money puts an attractive strategy to collect premium from those expecting a dramatic collapse.
