Brent and WTI extended their declines, pushing crude further below USD 100 per barrel as markets priced in expectations of ample Gulf supply. DBS Group Research cited a queue of almost 2,000 ships waiting to exit the Gulf, a dynamic that has added pressure to oil prices.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said oil prices are expected to fall below pre-conflict levels, while uncertainty remains around negotiations with Iran and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Even if headline energy prices cool, the report pointed to knock-on effects on global logistics from a months-long Hormuz closure already filtering through to intermediate goods.
Crude Oil Prices Slide Amid Supply Surge and Demand Concerns
We are seeing crude oil prices continue their sharp decline, with Brent now trading around $95 a barrel, well below the $100 mark. The market is clearly anticipating a massive supply surge as nearly 2,000 ships prepare to leave the Gulf. We expect prices could fall below the $85 level seen before the Hormuz conflict began last year.
This bearish view is reinforced by recent data showing a global slowdown. The latest Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI, for instance, unexpectedly dropped to 49.8, indicating a contraction in demand from the world’s largest oil importer. Meanwhile, last week’s EIA report showed a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories of 4.2 million barrels, suggesting supply is already outpacing demand.
Given this outlook, we believe positioning for further downside is the correct strategy for the coming weeks. We are looking at buying put options on July and August contracts to capitalize on falling prices. Shorting crude oil futures is also a viable, though higher-risk, strategy for traders comfortable with the leverage.
Market Strategy and Risks Amid Geopolitical Uncertainties
This environment feels very similar to the supply-driven price collapse of 2014, when an OPEC decision to not cut production sent prices tumbling for months. History suggests that once supply sentiment turns this negative, the downward momentum can be strong and swift. We are preparing for a period of sustained price weakness as all this new supply hits the market.
However, we must remain vigilant about the ongoing negotiations with Iran and the fragile stability in the Strait of Hormuz. A sudden breakdown in talks could cause a violent price reversal, leading to a significant short squeeze. For this reason, using defined-risk option strategies like bear put spreads may be more prudent than holding naked short positions.
Even as headline energy prices fall, we are watching for the secondary effects on inflation and logistics. The months-long shipping disruption has already started to filter into the cost of intermediate goods. This could create trading opportunities in sectors that benefit from lower oil prices but are still navigating higher transport costs.
