Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said progress on bringing inflation down has stalled, in remarks on the economic outlook and monetary policy delivered at a conference in Iceland on Friday. She linked the inflation risk to the Middle East conflict, warning that a longer war raises the chance of price pressures persisting, while adding that it remains too early to measure the full economic impact.
Bowman described the US economy as resilient even as the labour market shows signs of fragility. She said an extended energy shock could push inflation higher later this year, and that she would consider adjusting the policy outlook if war-related inflation pressures spread more broadly. Bowman argued the Fed can look through an energy shock if policy credibility is maintained, while reacting to a temporary shock could unnecessarily weigh on the economy; she also said the current moderately restrictive stance is intended to support employment while lowering inflation. She added it was appropriate to retain an easing bias in the April 29 policy statement and said she wants more clarity before reassessing, while expressing optimism that an end to the conflict would ease energy prices.
Stalled Inflation and Policy Caution
We see that progress on lowering inflation has stalled, which supports a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in at 3.2%, showing little movement from the previous two months. This persistence suggests that the path back to the 2% target will be longer and more challenging than initially anticipated.
The ongoing conflict in Iran presents the most significant upside risk to inflation, primarily through energy prices. WTI crude has been volatile, trading above $98 a barrel this week amid concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Historically, conflicts in this region have led to sustained oil price shocks, like the one seen in 1979 which drove global inflation higher for years.
This situation creates a difficult choice for policymakers, as the US economy is also showing signs of cooling. Recent non-farm payrolls showed job growth slowing to 160,000, and the unemployment rate has edged up to 4.1%. Reacting to an energy shock by keeping rates high could unnecessarily weaken an already fragile labor market.
Market Volatility and Interest Rate Positioning
Given this uncertainty, we believe volatility is mispriced and likely to increase in the coming weeks. The market is caught between a potential inflationary shock and a slowing domestic economy, making large swings in asset prices more probable. We are therefore increasing our exposure to long volatility positions, such as buying VIX call options.
We are adjusting our positions in interest rate derivatives to reflect a delay in any potential rate cuts. The market is repricing expectations for easing, with the probability of a September rate cut falling from over 60% a month ago to just under 30% today. We see value in options structures that profit from interest rates remaining higher for longer, such as selling out-of-the-money call options on SOFR futures.
